Looking at cognitive biases can be a sticky business because it's a term used in psychology, but the tricks our brain can play on us can overlap with other concepts and errors. Geeks coined the term in the 1970s, but we see elements of the things in our daily lives. The same kinds of errors overlap with logical fallacies to which these biases in thought contribute. I see the “weapons of influence” used in sales as a blending of both, just as thought reform does (according to those other geeks who coined those terms).
So
in the interest of understanding ourselves, the world around us, and
how we might safely fit into it, lets dive right into a lighter one
first.
I
Knew It Was Going to Happen!
I
say this one all the time – perhaps daily. The last time that I
played backgammon with my husband, I made a somewhat risky move,
anticipating that if he rolled a certain set of numbers, I would
suffer the consequences. I made a calculated risk, but I didn't have
any premonition at all about what the dice would yield. I wisely
anticipated the possibilities that might result, and I feared that
particular one.
The
hindsight bias falls into two types: One that is inevitable and one
that is foreseeable. We really don't know the time and place of an
event, but we tell ourselves that we “had a hunch” about the
outcome. The hindsight bias of inevitability is another trick we
play. Two blocks away from the petrol station, your tank runs empty
and your car shuts down. “I knew this would happen.” That was
not a premonition. Running your vehicle on insufficient fuel was
inevitable. It's just somewhat poetic that you ran out within sight
of the pump.
We
tend to do that with test questions, too. We feel like we might know
an answer on a quiz show, but if we really knew it, we would not have
hesitated to mention it.
Honest
Perspective
We
don't like to think of ourselves as inept, so when we don't hit the
mark perfectly on something or we haven't been attentive to take of
something in advance, we soften the blow to our ego with hindsight
bias. Daniel Amen might classify this as one of his Automatic
Negative Thoughts of predicting the future, especially when the
outcomes that meet us aren't so pleasant.
The
things that really trouble us and knock us off balance are those that
we didn't know, didn't anticipate, and didn't believe would happen.
How
to Harness Hindsight Bias
If
we can recognize when we use the hindsight bias, we can ask ourselves
what it is about ourselves or the situation that caused us to employ
it. I might be ashamed to admit my carelessness about my car and my
forgetfulness about putting fuel in my car when I run out of gas.
Perhaps I didn't have enough money in reserve to pay for it?
Beneath
that, there might be an underlying belief about the world that is
untrue, too. One example of that might be, “I'm afraid that I'm
powerless.” Another could be, “I never get a break.” Neither
is true, but because we get focused on our pain and our limitations,
we tend to underestimate our situation objectively.
Concerning
my backgammon move, I must admit that I still struggle a great deal
with perfectionism. I like to play board games with my husband
because I feel so safe with him whether I win or lose, but there is a
part of me that didn't learn how to safely take initiative without
fear, either. A part of my ego and my own locus of control is still
a bit too dependent on outcomes, frankly. But I am aware of it and
improve every time I see the way this fear pricks my heart and
results in some behavior or thought that seems to nurse my ego.
And
now, I will give myself encouragement for having the honesty to admit
that and write about it as an example. Perhaps six months ago, I
don't think that I had the fortitude to write about this so openly.
Ooops!
There it is! Another hindsight bias!
See how we built it into our
thoughts and how easy it is for us to trick ourselves? I don't know
one way or the other if I would have written such a thing because it
wasn't on my mind. What is true? I feel encouraged about my
progress. People who don't want to grow never ask themselves about
how they measure up against a standard. I do know that I want to
grow and thus encourage others! :)
For
further reading until the next post:
- One of the $3 Kindle books about Cognitive Bias at Amazon.com
- Steve Martin's The Heresy of Mind Control
- Gilovich, Griffin & Kahneman's Heuristics and Biases
- Robert Cialdini's Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion
- Judith Herman's Trauma and Recovery
- Bessel Van der Kolk's The Body Keeps Score
- Francine
Shapiro's Getting
Past Your Past
